The Rise Of Taliban 2.0

𝐀𝐟𝐠𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧: 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐇𝐚𝐬 𝐒𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐥𝐞𝐝

It has been 6 months since the establishment of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) [د افغانستان اسلامي امارت]. The war has ended. After 40 years of fighting, the dust has finally settled. The rivers of blood have stopped flowing. Coffin makers are running out of business.

David Miliband, a former British Labour Party politician remarked: “The ultimate irony is that Afghanistan is now more secure than it has been in the past 40 years, because the war is over.” [Times Radio, 18/2/2022].

The artificial economy that the West had created has stopped functioning. Extreme poverty is looming. The situation is dire. The road ahead is bumpy.

What are the ground realities?

How is the conduct of Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan?

What is the truth?

It is said: ‘The first casualty of war is the truth.’ [في الحرب، الحقيقة هي الضحية الأولى].

There are a lot of good and bad things happening in Afghanistan. It is important to highlight both. Binary division of “good guys” and “bad guys” doesn’t do justice to the truth. The reality is nuanced: good people can do some bad things and bad people can do some good things. There is a systematic campaign going on, to spread fake news. People are getting paid to spread fake news. Do not believe anything you hear about Afghanistan, without verifying it.

I am an Afghan, I speak both Afghan languages and I have a Masters in Politics. I have been following both sides of the conflict very closely, so I will do my best to remain impartial and highlight both the good and the bad, for the sake of English readers.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝘀𝗹𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗘𝗺𝗶𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝗳𝗴𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻 (𝗜𝗘𝗔)

Joe Biden became the US president, he called Afghanistan: ‘the graveyard of empires,’ and all foreign forces withdrew from Afghanistan – ending a 20 year war. The last American soldier left Afghanistan on 30th August 2021 – and TBN soldiers country-wide fell in prostration of thankfulness to God.

As the Western forces withdrew, they took their Afghan allies and their families with them. Thousands of people, who had worked with the foreign forces, flocked at Kabul airport with their families, hoping to get airlifted. About 122,000 people were airlifted, but others were left behind. There were chaotic scenes of some desperate people even hanging from the airplane tyres and wings, and falling on nearby buildings! They had collaborated with the foreign forces and feared that TBN would take revenge on them if they stayed behind.

The Western-backed Islamic Republic of Afghanistan washed away like a sandcastle. The Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani and his cabinet fled the country – while the former Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah remained. Districts and provinces collapsed like a deck of cards, one after the other. The Afghan Security Forces had the military strength, but they had no reason to fight for a corrupt government. The Afghan security forces melted away, putting up little to no resistance.

The TBN leader, Mollah Haibatullah [ھِبت الله اخوندزاده] offered full pardon and amnesty to anyone who laid down their arms and they surrendered in masses. TBN even paid their taxi-fees, to take them back home.

There were fears of a civil war erupting, like the one that raged in Afghanistan between 1992-1996. In those days, the infrastructure of Afghanistan was destroyed, the economy collapsed, the government institutions collapsed and properties were looted. The cities were left in ruins. Dead bodies were lying on the streets, being eaten by dogs. The dogs had started to hunt back in packs, like wolves. The smell of gunpowder and stench of death was everywhere. The eyes, ears and noses of people were cut. The breasts of women were cut and laying on the streets. This was one of the darkest chapters in the history of Afghanistan.

This time, there was no civil war…

In the past 20 years, the West injected millions of dollars into the Afghan economy. Rivers of money were flowing into Afghanistan. Those who allied themselves with the foreign forces were generously rewarded. The government institutions were re-established. The infrastructure of the country were rebuilt. The Afghan currency regained its value. The roads were rebuilt. The health-care system was re-established.

All of this was preserved during the TBN takeover.

The infrastructure was not destroyed. The government institutions remained intact. TBN managed to take the entire country in a spectacular fashion, without a nosebleed. Not even a flower-pot was displaced!

TBN came as a storm. Anyone who stood in their way, was getting washed away. Nobody put up a fight. In their minds, TBN had brought another super-power to its knees – so they stood no chance at all.

Abdul Rashid Dostum [عبدالرشید دوستم], the notorious war-criminal’s palaces were taken over. Ataa Mohammad Noor [عطا محمد نور], who was deemed ‘The Emperor of Balkh’ and Dostum fled to Tajikistan via the Hayratan bridge. Their abandoned vehicles, military clothes and boots were all left at the bridge. They fled in civilian clothes and in their underwear.

The TBN came out of this war as the undisputed victors. The pace of events took political analysts by surprise.

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) [د افغانستان اسلامي امارت] was established.

General Sir David Richards, UK’s former Chief of the Defence Staff stated: “The fact is, they [TBN] defeated us. And we have to come to terms with that inconvenient fact. They are now the government of Afghanistan.” [BBC Panorama, 7/2/2022].

𝗪𝗵𝗼 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗧𝗕𝗡 𝟮.𝟬?

TBN 1.0 ruled Afghanistan between 1996-2001. After 9/11 attacks happened, the TBN refused to hand over OBL. So the US attacked Afghanistan and dropped bombs, which shook mountains. The TBN regime fell in face of America’s superior military might. TBN fighters faded and blended into the civilian population. They retreated to the tribal areas of Pakistan. They ‘licked their wounds’ and prepared a come-back. They were supported by ISI, which played a double game of ‘running with the hare, and hunting with the hound.’ Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif reminded the US: “You carried out 57,800 attacks on Afghanistan from our bases, your forces were supplied arms and explosives through our soil.” [Tribune, 4/1/2018].

At the same time, Pakistan took in millions of Afghan refugees and helped the Afghan people on many occasions in their difficult times. The Afghan TBN took their help, but they don’t take orders from anyone. They act autonomously. They have good relations, especially with Pakistan which shares a 2,600km border with Afghanistan. TBN want friendly relations with all countries of the world.

There are many similarities between TBN 1.0 and TBN 2.0, but there are also some clear differences.

Gen Sir Nick Carter, UK’s Chief of the Defence Staff said: “TBN 2.0 is different. There are a lot of people in TBN 2.0 who would like to govern in a more modern way.” And he told the BBC: “It may well be a TBN that is more reasonable, less repressive and, if you look at the way it is governing Kabul at the moment, there are some indications that it is more reasonable.”

TBN 2.0 are not liberals by any stretch of the imagination. They are still very conservative.

Generally speaking, they live basic-lifestyles in mud-houses, they don’t live a luxurious lifestyle.

The Chief Judge of the Afghanistan’s High Court, Abdul Hakim [عبد الحكيم اسحاقزى] comes to work in a Rickshaw and pays the commute fees from his own pocket.

Their high level ministers, like Mohammad Yaqoob [محمد يعقوب], the son of Mullah Omar, were recently photographed eating simple meals, while sitting with the general public, eating on the floor. In the previous government, lavish parties were being held in the presidential palace with music and dancing. During Ashraf Ghani’s rule: “18 types of meat” were served at the Presidential Palace, (M.H.Alim, 2021), while millions of Afghans lived in poverty. A team of TBN diplomats was recently filmed going abroad carrying a cheap 5 Afghani carrier-bag ($0.05 bag). This is while they have full access to the national treasury and millions of dollars in cash has already arrived in Kabul.

When the TBN entered Panjshir, it is reported that some of them asked their local commanders: “are we allowed to eat the berries that have fallen from the trees on the ground, or is that considered stealing?”

Recently, a 5-year old child was stuck in a well in Zabul Province of Afghanistan. The government conducted a large-scale rescue mission. High level ministers, like the local governor, the Minister of Defence Mohammad Yaqoob [محمد يعقوب] and Anas Haqqani [انس حقانی] showed up at the trench, to show solidarity and encourage the rescue teams. The entire government started moving, all for the sake of one child. The child died before the rescue team could get to him and the Minister of Defence was seen in tears.

They seem to be winning hearts and minds. Their new conduct makes them very popular among many Afghans.

The TBN officials can generally be approached directly by the public, without many bureaucratic hindrances.

There is also no racism or nepotism within their ranks. Their criteria for appointments is the sacrifices of the individual. Abdul Ghani Baradar [عبدالغني برادر] is is the Acting First Deputy Prime Minister of Afghanistan, while his brother is a shoe-seller.

From the onset, it was clear that TBN 2.0 were going to be different from the TBN 1.0 – which were originally in power from 1996-2001. TBN 2.0 are more sophisticated. They had clearly realised their mistakes and were very careful not to repeat them.

The original TBN 1.0 wiped out their opposition and took Kabul with blood dripping from their weapons. TBN 2.0 offered ‘amnesty’ to anyone who did not resist them. TBN 1.0 destroyed the Bamyan statues and the TBN 2.0 promised to protect Afghanistan’s historical heritage. TBN 1.0 destroyed cameras and TBN 2.0 take selfies with the general public. TBN 1.0 suppressed minorities, TBN 2.0 met with minority groups vowing to protect them. They are Hanafis, but they have no official agenda against Shiah, Salafis, or even Sikhs. TBN 1.0 executed people in stadiums, TBN 2.0 ban their members from entering places of entertainment with guns. During the reign of TBN 1.0 – TV’s were broken by some of its members. During the reign of TBN 2.0 – TV’s and Radio stations are operating. TBN 2.0 even promised to bring internet to people’s homes.

TBN 2.0 re-created the department of: ‘الأمر بالمعروف والنهي عن المنكر’, i.e. ‘Commanding Good & Forbidding Vice’, but this time the role of this department is only ‘advisory’. TBN 2.0 removed the law-enforcement powers of their foot soldiers and only gave these powers to their courts. They banned vigilante and mob justice. They ‘advice’ men to keep their beards, and they ‘advice’ women to wear the hijab – not necessarily the Burka. They allow women to go out for their needs, if the journey is less than 78km. If the journey is far, they ‘advice’ that a male relative should accompany them.

They do not punish or beat people if they fail to comply with their recommendations, (Al-Jazeera, 2022).

The vowed to ‘conquer people’s hearts’, and emphasised that their fighters should not annoy the general public. They banned their members from checking anyone’s phone. They are not allowed to enter people’s homes, to check what they are watching or what they are listening to. If they hear loud music from outside, they are also not allowed to enter these homes, until a court gives them permission. Then they are allowed to enter, taking with them 2 village elders and the local Imam, to prevent false accusations of immorality against them.

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝗻𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝘀𝗹𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗘𝗺𝗶𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝗳𝗴𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻 (𝗜𝗘𝗔)

It’s not all ‘sunshine and roses’ – there are also real problems and valid criticisms of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) [د افغانستان اسلامي امارت].

The main issues are the following:

𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝘆:

Afghanistan is on the brink of an economic catastrophe: the artificial economy the West had created came to a total standstill after they pulled the plug on it.

By mid-2022, the U.N. Development Program estimates that 97% of Afghanistan’s population will “plunge” into poverty, [ABC News, 9/2/2022].

If the TBN don’t fix the economic problems soon, the people will be fed up. Poverty can cause people to reject God, their Creator [كاد الفقر أن يكون كفراً] – let alone the TBN government.

The TBN inherited a broken economy, that was already rotting at its core due to corruption. The Afghan economy was also purpose-built to be reliant on foreign aid. It was never self-sufficient. When the foreign aid stopped, the engine of the economy also stopped running. Millions of people are facing economic difficulties. The situation is extremely dire.

Rory Stewart, a specialist on Afghanistan former MP from the UK, said: “There is no evidence that the TBN is stealing aid. The real reason why we are not providing [aid] is because the West feels humiliated and bitter, because it was defeated.” [Sky News – 7/2/2021].

Daniel Larison wrote: “The U.S. lost the war in Afghanistan. The TNB is the de facto government in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future. For the sake of the people of Afghanistan, the U.S. must acknowledge this reality and stop punishing the Afghan people by withholding the resources they need to survive.” [Responsible Statecraft, 5/11/2021].

The West has now promised billions of US Dollars in aid, part of which has already reached Afghanistan.

The TBN have started talks with China and other countries, to kick-start economic projects and extract Afghans underground resources. CNN reported in 2021, that: “The TBN are sitting on $1 trillion worth of minerals the world desperately needs.” The US Geological Survey told Science magazine in 2010 stated: “If Afghanistan has a few years of calm, allowing the development of its mineral resources, it could become one of the richest countries in the area within a decade,” [CNN, 18/8/2021].

The economic prospects for the future look promising.

𝗪𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗻’𝘀 𝗥𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝘀:

As a policy, The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IMEA) is not against women’s education and women’s working – they just want the men and women segregated.

They did make some unhelpful moves, which caused confusion and sent the wrong signals.

They announced the reopening of all schools and universities, but bizarrely told females above the primary school age to stay at home, until further notice. The acting Deputy Education Minister Abdul Hakim Hemat confirmed to BBC that girls would not be allowed to attend secondary school until a new education policy was approved in the new year, [BBC, 8/12/2021]. They also announced that female workers should stay at home until further notice. Zabihullah Mujahid explained: “We are not against female education” And: “It’s a very temporary procedure,” [BBC, 24/8/2021].

This sends the wrong signal internationally and shatters the hopes and ambitions of girls inside Afghanistan. It has been 6 months and in most provinces females are not going to school above primary school.

They could have just separated the classes and work-offices, using a cheap curtain.

Education is a basic human right of every male and female, which nobody can take away from them.

After a strong-backlash inside Afghanistan and internationally, TBN are slowly easing restrictions: schools and universities are opening for both men and women, and women are starting to get back into work. Women currently teach in schools. Women work in hospitals. Women also present News and other programs on Afghan TV channels – which TBN themselves participate in. Women run tailoring and other type of businesses in Afghanistan, without restrictions. TBN have even created a female-police department with females working in the security sector.

TBN have promised to open all schools and universities by March-2022, to males and females of all ages.

𝗚𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗝𝗼𝗯𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘀𝘁𝘀:

It is normal for any party that comes into power, to designate power to its own party members. However, competency is also a condition.

It is said:

اعطي خبزك للخباز لو اكل نصفه
“Give the job of baking the bread to a the baker, even if he himself eats half of the bread.”

There have been some very inappropriate appointments of incompetent people in the government positions by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA).

There should be no monopoly on power, excluding all non-TBN. Jobs should be distributed based on competency. The TBN’s response to these objections is: these positions they have given to their members are only ‘managerial’ and that the jobs are done by the deputies, which are specialists. They also claim that 80% of the 500,000 employees of the previous administration are currently working in the new government under their supervision.

TBN are actually trying to strengthen their roots – before they share power. They fear that giving authority to non-TBN will sideline them and may even result in a coup…

𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗱𝗼𝗺 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗰𝗵:

People should be allowed to criticise the government. People should not be afraid to criticise the government. There are documented cases where journalists have been beaten. TBN’s response is: these are a handful of cases and this is not the state policy.

They claim that these are lone acts, and that they will punish the perpetrators.

TBN should be flexible and listen to the legitimate demands of the people and international community.

It is said:
الشجرة التي لا تنحني امام الرياح تنكسر
‘The tree that doesn’t bend with the wind gets uprooted.’

The TBN seem to have recognised this. Zabihullah Mujahid said: “They can critique our work so we can improve,” [GEO News, 17/8/2021].

Recently, Faizullah Jalal [فيض الله جلال], a lecturer at Kabul University, publicly insulted a prominent TBN official on live TV, calling him “a calf”. He was arrested and told that he can freely criticise the TBN, but that he should disagree respectfully and not insult people. He apologised and was released.

The critics of the TBN are often given airtime and they do criticise the TBN.

𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗴𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻:

It has been 6-months since the establishment of the new government, but not a single country in the world recognises the new government.

The recognition of the new government is not a matter of IF, but a matter of WHEN.

General Sir David Richards, UK’s former Chief of the Defence Staff stated: “I think the West is going to end up recognising the TBN government. If that’s the case, then we’d better get on with it quicker, sooner rather than later.” [BBC Panorama, 7/2/2022].

𝗢𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗜𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗲𝘀

There are some very ill-mannered people in the ranks of TBN. There are also other issues like rogue elements within the TBN who have taken revenge on previous government employees, despite the amnesty. Other opportunist non-TBN have infiltrated the ranks of TBN. Some TBN officials have made very irresponsible remarks, which should be avoided.

TBN have set up a panel, to clean their ranks of TBN members who misbehave and abuse their power. They have so far removed 3,000 members from their ranks, for bad behaviour, and not adhering to the official policies. [Alarabia News, 15/1/2022].

The TBN have given out phone numbers so that people can notify them of any misconduct by their members.

It is important for people to keep highlighting these things, so they can be reformed. People should always speak out for justice and never support injustice.

People should continue to apply pressure on the new government until they meet all the legitimate demands of the people. TBN should also avoid unnecessary clashes with the people and the international community. Afghanistan is part of the global community. We all live in a ‘global-village’.

Afghanistan cannot afford to turn into another Pariah state. The legitimate demands of the international community must be respected.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗙𝗿𝗼𝗻𝘁 (𝗡𝗥𝗙)

The National Resistance Front (NRF) is lead by Ahmad Masoud [احمد مسعود], the son of the legendary Anti-Soviet resistance fighter Ahmad Shah Masoud.

This ‘resistance’ only exists on social media. It has no physical presence. This resistance will never take off. It stands no chance.

The resistance stood no chance when it was backed by NATO. They stood no chance when the TBN approached them on motorcycles. The TBN have now gained access to sophisticated military equipment, worth over $85 Billion, consisting of: 75,000 vehicles, 200 airplanes and helicopters and 600,000 small arms.

TBN have stretched their roots very deep into the soil of Afghanistan. It is not easy to uproot them again. The only way to bring reform is to engage with them.

The United States Special Representative for Afghanistan, Thomas West confirmed that the US does not support any armed opposition against the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) [د افغانستان اسلامي امارت] and that the US discourages others from doing so.

The ‘resistance’ was taken by surprise at the new conduct of TBN 2.0. They expected, and maybe even hoped, that TBN 2.0 would act like TBN 1.0, but they did not. If the TBN 2.0 had acted like the TBN 1.0 – the resistance would have a cause to resist. That’s why they are now spreading fake news and trying to play the ‘ethnic-card’, to create tensions and keep the ‘fire’ burning… they know that if the momentum dies and this fire extinguishes, it is difficult to rekindle it.

The truth is, the war has now ended… people are tired of war. Nobody wants a new war.

There are decent people on both sides of the conflict. They just have been exposed to ‘their side’ of the story.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲

The current situation is dire, and the road ahead is bumpy, but the future is bright.

It is highly unlikely that the resistance will take off. This government is here to stay for the foreseeable future. ISIS-K is an annoyance, not an existential threats. Most of their nests have been destroyed by TBN 2.0.

The world will soon recognise the new government. It is inevitable. The cost of not recognising it are greater.

I’m by no means trying to white-wash the crimes committed by either side in the past 20 years of fighting. The TBN waged a fierce offensive on coalition forces and their allies, which also resulted in thousands of civilian deaths. The foreign forces and their Afghan allies bombed and droned from the skies, hitting vehicles, homes, funerals, and weddings – which also resulted in thousands of innocent deaths. The late Vice President of the Afghan government, Amrullah Saleh said: ‘If you want to work in the garden, you sometimes have to get your hands dirty.’ (J. Fergusson, 2010).

There are no white-doves in this conflict…

Each side has skeletons in their closets… but now is not the time to open those cans of worms. Now is not the time to look at the past. It is time to look at the future. It is time to join hands and rebuild.

The war has now ended. The corrupt officials have all fled the country. The conduct of the new TBN 2.0 seems to be generally good with the people. They seem to be listening to people’s concerns and correcting their mistakes. They do not want to clash with the public.

As for those people, who are ‘beating the drums of war’, while sitting in refugee camps abroad, they should know that Afghans have no appetite to start another war. Now is the time for peace. They need to get over the fact that the Republic has collapsed. They need to adjust to the new reality. They should not be stuck in the past.

A new Afghanistan is Rising from the Ashes …